Washington, D.C. (politico.com): The House moved quickly to override President Bush’s veto of the Farm Bill Wednesday - so quickly that lawmakers may have to do it again.

One hundred Republicans joined 216 Democrats on the 316-108 vote, which came just hours after the White House had returned the $307 billion, five-year measure.

The action reflected growing tensions between Congress and the White House over budget priorities. And a second showdown could come Thursday in the Senate when Democrats will press for a major expansion of GI education benefits to help veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

But the new majority hurt its cause in the case of the Farm Bill. In the rush to act before the Memorial Day recess, the leadership ignored the full consequences of a clerical error in which the third of the bill’s 15 titles had been dropped from the text presented on parchment to the president for his signature or veto.

After consulting with parliamentarians, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said that the House had properly overridden Bush on those portions on the parchment - but that left Title III, which covers trade and important international nutrition programs, out in the cold.

To remedy the situation, the Maryland Democrat said Wednesday night that the “likely” solution to the parliamentary snafu will be for the Congress to send Bush a newly numbered bill with the full text of the one voted upon last week.

“We can pass a full bill again. I think that’s likely, or we can just do Title III,” Hoyer said. He had not yet consulted with Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) but signaled that passing the bill again was the cleanest route and one he hoped could be done quickly.

Toward this end, the House Rules Committee cleared the way Wednesday night for an agriculture related bill to be brought up for a quick vote, and Hoyer’s hope is that Congress waves the newly numbered but familiar bill through, Bush vetoes again, and the override votes resume.

Then again, little about the Farm Bill has gone smoothly. And one casualty already in the whole affair could be plans for passing the 2009 budget before the recess. Hoyer indicated that will now wait until lawmakers return in June; the rest of this week will be devoted to clearing up the Farm Bill confusion and debate on a defense authorization bill.

The day had begun with more confidence. Stepping out of character, the Senate’s mild-mannered Finance Committee chairman, Sen. Max Baucus, had even taunted Bush for having brought “a knife to a gunfight” in the Farm Bill veto battle, which the Montana Democrat dismissed as “a speed bump on the road” toward enacting the legislation.

The macho talk reflected growing disagreements between Congress and the White House five months before the November elections. The Democrats’ proposed budget resolution would add $21 billion to White House appropriations requests for the coming year. And education is a signature issue for the party, from public school reading programs to GI benefits.

More than one-third of the increased appropriations identified in the new budget resolution would go to education accounts. And GI college benefits are pivotal to Senate votes Thursday related to a larger spending package for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Jobless benefits and Gulf Coast aid are part of the same debate. But the expanded GI benefits-costing $52 billion over 10 years-have become a rallying cry for Democrats, who are pressing Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, to join in the effort because of his support of the war in Iraq.
Thus far, McCain has refused, preferring an alternative bill that puts more focus on benefits for the families of career officers and noncommissioned officers. But even this bill is now projected to cost $38 billion over the next 10 years. Despite the continued sniping, New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg, the ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, predicted some blend of the two plans is now likely to clear Congress before the elections. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is poised to press hard on Thursday for his preferred version of the GI education bill, sponsored by Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.).

Reid is expected to first seek 60 votes on a larger domestic spending package that includes aid to Gulf Coast states still recovering from Katrina. But if that fails, he can then come back with a cleaner version focused on the Webb bill, where he has said he has the votes to prevail.

In all the maneuvering, both political parties lose sight of deficit reduction as a major goal. And as much as the White House has tried to draw a firm line on spending, it is undercut by its own demands for ever more emergency funding for U.S. military operations and foreign aid initiatives.

Many Democrats argue that the GI education benefits should be viewed as part of the enormous cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. At the same time, farm-state Republicans complain that the commodity title of the Farm Bill–costing $7 billion a year–is not a fair target for Bush to choose at this juncture “I’m a little bit amazed that a quarter of 1 percent of federal spending got the president’s attention. Why this; why now?” said Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, a social conservative from rural Colorado who helped whip Republicans in support of the override. “The Farm Bill’s right up there with motherhood and apple pie, and back home, they don’t understand why the president is vetoing it.”

For its part, the White House gave no hint that it had know the Title II was missing, since the administration works more from the legislative conference report than the parchment text. But in his veto message, Bush argued that at a time of high food prices and record farm income, this bill lacks the program reform he wanted, especially tighter payment caps that would bar wealthy individuals from receiving continued subsidies.”

Singling out “earmarks and other ill-considered provisions,” the president said that “rural and urban Americans alike are frustrated with excessive government spending and the funneling of taxpayer funds for pet projects.”

Farm Bill advocates argue that the measure incorporates more reform than its critics acknowledge, by improving the reporting of subsidy payments and imposing new income caps that can be tightened in the future. And when compared to the 2002 Farm Bill, which Bush signed, the cost of the commodity title is dramatically less.

Much of this is the natural result of higher crop prices, which have made the old safety net price support and loan programs irrelevant in many markets. But a comparison of 2002-2006 spending and that projected for the next five years is striking.

Nutrition programs will account for more than two-thirds of the $307 billion cost of the bill, a dramatic increase. At the same time, the different pieces most important to individual farmers have changed significantly.

For example, from 2002 to 2006, commodity programs cost the government about $74.9 billion compared with $35 billion projected for 2008-2012. At the same time, conservation spending would increase significantly to about $25 billion. And even after the savings promised in the new bill, crop insurance premium subsidies would grow to $27.4 billion, almost twice the $14.6 billion cost from 2002-2006.

Washington, D.C. (rightcommentary.com): I reported yesterday on the US major oil executives testifying before the US Senate. CSPAN now has a link to view the testimony in full:

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=205477-1&showVid=true

Enjoy!

Washington, D.C. (rightcommentary.com): The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday night voted to override President George W. Bush’s veto of the $289 billion farm bill that expands public nutrition programs for poor Americans but does not cut subsidies for wealthy farmers as much as Bush demanded.

Noting that food prices are forecast to rise by five percent this year, lawmakers said it was important to enact the farm bill because it would expand the food stamp program.

The farm bill adds $10.4 billion to nutrition programs over 10 years, including $7.9 billion for food stamps and $1.25 billion for donations to food pantries. Nearly 28 million Americans receive food stamps.

Two-thirds of farm bill spending would go to nutrition. The five-year bill also increases funding for land stewardship and biofuels development. It cuts crop insurance and crop supports by several billion dollars over 10 years.

To carry out a shift in U.S. policy on biofuels, the farm bill cuts the tax credit for corn-based ethanol by 12 percent, to 45 cents a gallon, and creates a $1.01-a-gallon tax credit for ethanol made from cellulose. The bill also has loan guarantees to build cellulosic ethanol plants and would pay farmers to experiment with biomass crops.

The House voted 316-108 to override the veto. With election season at hand, almost half of the House Republicans voted to override.

A two-thirds vote is required for an override (239 votes).

In his veto message, Bush said the farm bill, by failing to cut crop subsidies enough, would send tax dollars to multimillionaire farmers while Americans pay higher grocery bills.

“At a time of high food prices and record farm income, this bill lacks (farm) program reform and fiscal discipline,” Bush wrote in a veto message to Congress. He said the bill increases subsidy rates for 15 crops and runs contrary to U.S. efforts for freer world trade in agriculture.

It was the first veto of farm legislation since Dec. 6, 2005, when President Clinton vetoed a budget-cutting bill that included the “Freedom to Farm” plan.

The Senate scheduled an override vote for Thursday that would enact the bill into law. It would be the second override of 10 vetoes by Bush.

I will post the link to the vote when it’s available on Thomas as a follow up. I suspect the Senate will also override the Veto.

Washington, D.C. (realclearpolitics.com): While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.

Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com , follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.

Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.

And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.

Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.

So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.

Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.

Mon dieu!

In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.

Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.

So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.

Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.

In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.

This is not a good year to be a Republican.

Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Outrage.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com.

Washington, D.C. (Politico.com) By Patrick O’Connor: House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) unveiled a series of changes at his party’s campaign committee on Wednesday, including a declaration to avoid bitter primary fights and the launch of an internal audit of three special election losses that have cast a dark cloud over the party this spring.

The Republican leader introduced these changes to his rank-and-file members during a closed-door caucus meeting, according to an outline of his remarks provided to Politico. NRCC Chairman Tom Cole was also expected to outline some of his own tweaks during a meeting of House Republicans on Wednesday at the Capitol Hill Club.

The two leaders have been negotiating the final package since a Friday meeting in which Cole first suggested bringing in an outside adviser to help with strategy and member outreach, according to sources familiar with those discussions.

Boehner wanted his chairman to go a little further, the sources said, and some of the changes announced Wednesday clearly impede Cole’s sole authority to run the committee. For example, the audit will dissect the committee’s decision-making during special election losses in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi earlier this year, and the leader’s declaration to become more involved in primaries clearly refutes Cole’s own determination not to meddle in these local internecine conflicts.

But Cole was allowed to keep his top two aides - a point of conflict between the two Republicans since Boehner first suggested the chairman should dismiss them last fall.

UPDATE: In addition, one of the members being asked to head up this internal audit is Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a former NRCC chairman who drafted a lengthy campaign treatise for party leaders before the Louisiana loss. Davis was apparently out of the country until Wednesday morning, so no one could confirm whether he had agreed to do it.

UPDATE II: Davis, who returned from Taiwan Wednesday morning, has agreed to head up the audit, according to an aide. He will be joined by Ohio Rep. Patrick J. Tiberi, a close Boehner ally.

According to the outline of Boehner’s remarks, the Republican leader told his colleagues that to avoid bitter primary fights “we’re going to be proactive to prevent situations that leave the eventual nominee shorts on resources and bloodied for the general election.”

Boehner pointed to the latest primary contest in New York following the announcement yesterday that Rep. Vito Fossella would not seek reelection - the party’s 30th retirement announcement this year - following a drunk driving arrest in Virginia which led to revelations that the congressman had fathered a daughter out of wedlock more than three years ago with a longtime mistress. Boehner said he and Cole had already spoken to Republican candidates in the Staten Island district and are “going to take all steps necessary to maximize our chance of holding the seat.”

But the Republican leader did not go as far as to commit the committee to full participation in these primary fights. Instead, he cited the example of Sandy Treadwell, the Republican candidate challenging Democratic Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in upstate New York; both Boehner and Cole have give him money even though two other Republicans are running for the seat. Cole has already given money to eight other Republicans who face primary challenges, but most are current and former House colleagues.

Other changes the leader laid out include:

- Tapping Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, a powerhouse fundraiser who ran against Cole for the NRCC chairmanship in 2006, to create a series of “candidate funds” for the seats Democrats have targeted that have late special elections.

- The elected leadership team will be more involved “where we can make a difference.”

- The development of sample radio and television ads “to help Republican challengers and members promote a positive message of change.”

Boehner told the gathering of House Republicans Wednesday that he has tapped two members to conduct “a thorough, top-to-bottom review of what has worked and what hasn’t” in these early special elections.

“I think this ‘after-action report’ will help us determine what we can do better,” Boehner told his colleagues, according to the outline of his remarks. “An independent audit - done by ‘auditors’ everyone respects - can help restore confidence by identifying what’s working and what’s not. Tom recognizes this and I applaud him for that.”