As it presently stands, the Novemeber 4th election resulted in 55 Democrats, 2 independents (Lieberman and Sanders who both caucus with Democrats - making an effective 57 Democrats), 40 Republicans, and 3 seats oustanding. The three outstanding seats are Coleman’s in Minnesota, Saxby-Chambliss’ in Georgia, and Stevens (the convict) in Alaska. By hook and because of a “crook” - it would appear that the Democrats may wind up with the 60 votes needed for a “filibuster proof Senate” before the 111th Congress is sworn in next January.

The Coleman/Franken race is perhaps the most disturbing of the three races. Coleman initially beat Franken by about 700 votes. On election night, Coleman was the winner. This was then followed by an immediate day after the election “recount” as precincts recalculated their final totals and submitted them to the Secretary of State of the State of Minnesota. Coleman won again - this time by about 500 votes. Franken called for a recount and the board of elections and the canvassing board once again reviewed the results. After a random canvassing of precincts, and after a series of suspicious “found” ballots (that of course were all for Franken), Coleman leads now by only 200 votes. That makes three times now Coleman successfully defended against his challenger.

The canvassing board confirmed that, with all the state’s 87 counties reporting, Coleman leads Franken by 215 votes out of more than 2.9 million votes cast. After county canvasses showed a margin of 206, Coleman gained an additional 25 votes, and Franken 16, from a post-election audit of voting machines in 205 randomly-selected precincts.

“The report triggers the counting by hand of the four races which will begin tomorrow morning,” said Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, chair of the five-member canvassing board. In addition to the Senate race, the results in two state House races and one state Senate race also will be recounted.

The Coleman campaign declared victory after the board meeting.

“Senator Coleman has, for the third time, been named the winner of the 2008 election,” said campaign manager Cullen Sheehan in a statement. “We look forward to the beginning of tomorrow’s recount, and to what we believe to be the ultimate conclusion of the final chapter of this year’s election - the reelection of Senator Norm Coleman.”

With just 206 votes separating the two candidates, any and all efforts to count (or disqualify) ballots have to be watched extremely closely as even the slightest change in the tabulations could change the identity of the next senator from Minnesota. I believe Franken’s legal team (lead by another failed Gubenatorial candidate and former MN US Attorney - David Lilliehaug) and the precinct captains put this race at risk. Even long standing friends of mine who are DFL agree something is fishy. Nevertheless, Coleman may yet prevail.

Coleman’s biggest edge heading into the recount is that he is ahead, narrowly but ahead nonetheless. It matters both practically and symbolically.

Franken has two advantages: first, he received nearly 362,000 fewer votes statewide than did Barack Obama — a significant undervote in the Senate race which thus far isn’t really accounted for (except for magical ballot boxes they seem to find in the Iron Range that all go for Franken). Second, and perhaps the biggest advantage Franken’s legal team will have, is that Minnesota election law is relatively loose when it comes to determining a voter’s preference; that is, as long as it is clear who the voter meant to support, the vote will likely be counted.

It’s entirely likely Coleman - whom I believe “won it fair and square” - if by only a few votes… will have the seat flipped by an agressive legal challenge and suspicious “precinct” reporting.

The next race that is the problematic is the Stevens v. Begich contest in Alaska. Sen. Ted “jailbird” Stevens will lose his seat regardles of the outcome of the election. As you may recall, a federal jury found Stevens guilty, on all seven counts, of violating ethics laws by lying on his Senate disclosure forms, concealing $250,000 in gifts and home renovations-the bulk of which came from Bill Allen, a millionaire friend who once ran the state’s biggest oil-contracting firm. Stevens, who still maintains his innocence post conviction, continues his bid for re-election and indicated plans to appeal his verdict. A the moment, Stevens faces up to 35 years in prison; he is expected to face sentencing early next year. The GOP in the Senate have clearly made indications that they do not intend to seat him for committees in the 111th Congress if re-elected, and would likely face censure.

Thus, the seat is not really about Stevens - but rather - can a republican candidate occupy it. While there is media speculation that Gov. Sarah Palin may run for the seat (or appoint herself) for the lame duck period, the reality is that Stevens will likely serve out his remaining term. Whether or not Palin runs for Senate in what might be a special-runoff election (when Stevens ultimately resigns) is first determined by whether or not Steven’s wins his seat, thus the challenge of Begich jeopardizes what was once thought a safe Republican seat in Alaska.Democratic challenger Mark Begich extended his lead over Alaska Senator Ted Stevens with about 10,000 ballots still to be counted, according to the state’s elections division.

Begich now leads by 2,374 votes as the remaining ballots are tallied from the Nov. 4 election, according to division Director Gail Fenumiai. Officials said they may complete counting about 7,700 absentee ballots today with another 2,500 ballots from military families overseas yet to arrive.

Senate Republicans in Washington today delayed a proposed vote to strip Stevens of his committee assignments and expel him from the party caucus as they await the election outcome.

Stevens, 85, told reporters today, “I still have faith I’m going to win.”

If Stevens wins, Republicans may meet again in two days to consider stripping him of his committee posts. Expulsion from the Senate would only occur after an Ethics Committee recommendation and a full vote of the Senate.

In all likelihood, Stevens will lose the seat outright, unless something bizarre was afoot during the election - for which there is little indication.

Finally, there is the race to re-elect Saxby-Chambliss in Georgia. A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll this week is showing Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss leading in the U.S. Senate runoff, with Democrat Jim Martin close behind.

The poll commissioned by the Democratic-oriented web site puts Chambliss at 49 percent, and Martin at 46 percent. Margin of error is 4 percent.

Chambliss was about 8,000 votes short of a majority in the general election. His Democratic opponent, Jim Martin, got about 47 percent, and a Libertarian candidate took 3 percent to force the Dec. 2 runoff. Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Chambliss is part of a firewall that will protect conservative interests.

“With Barack Obama as our president-elect, with them at least getting 57 votes [and] potentially getting 60 votes in the U.S. Senate, if this race is lost, there will be no check on the liberal policies that the Democrats can bring to Washington, D.C.,” Ensign said.

Should the Dems win all three - that would put them at sixty. At sixty - the ability to backstop any legislation that the Democrats decide to push through ends.

UPDATE 8:45PM (11/18/08): Associated Press is reporting that Sen. Stevens has lost the election recount.

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