In response to a comment I made on Larry Johnson’s blog, I wanted to write a quick entry on my own blog as to why I believe the Old Dominion is at risk of becoming “weak blue” in the electoral map. In short, the risk of Virginia going to Obama comes down to the demonstrated ability of Democrats to win Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William, and Arlington counties in such a dominating way that it overpowers the largely “rural vote” of the rest of Virginia’s counties. Since the demographics of Virginia have changed in the urban counties, and they make up the largest population of the state, Virginia’s electoral dynamics probably now look a lot like Pennsylvania - where if you win the urban vote, you win the State. This dynamic favors democrats (unfortunately). However, I think Obama will have to work very hard to win in the Old Dominion.

First, let’s look at the electoral results in the Primary season. Obama almost won Virginia by having more votes than both Hillary and the Republicans as a field combined. He carried the state with 624K votes - almost double that of Hillary and three times as many as McCain. Now I realize the Republican race at that time was not a contested race - and thus that probably affected the turnout. So lets look at the 2004 election then to get a sense of what could happen.

Kerry lost Virginia by about 300K votes. However, Virginia’s demographics in terms of self-identification of party ideology suggests that the majority of the state considers itself “moderate to liberal” with roughly 62% of those polled by CNN exit polls in 2004. Moreover, the majority of Virginia voters approved with how the President (and by extension the party) were governing in 2004. Today - that demographic is considerably lower.

With such a small margin of loss in 2004 - Obama can potentially win Virginia. To compare, Kerry received only about 200K votes in the VA Primary - which was a contested Primary at the time when Kerry won VA. Obama received almost three times as many votes - and Hillary even bested Kerry’s numbers by over a 100K more votes. In short, the pimrary in 2008 suggests that Democrats have gotten considerably better at “getting out the vote” in the numbers they will need to overcome the Republican advantage. Even if you add Kerry and Edward’s results together in 2004 - Hillary did better… and Obama did considerably better.

Finally, look at the Virginia state results for further signs of weakness. While the House remained Republican, Democrats made significant inroads in the 2007 elections. Moreover, Democrats wrestled away from Republicans the Virginia Senate, by a 21 to 19 margin, and ended a decade of Republican control of the Senate.

The northern Virginia area is probably responsible for this… the trend is a function of the explosive growth of Northern Virginia, the suburbs and exurbs of Washington, D.C. This part of the Commonwealth is much wealthier, more urban in its thinking (mostly owing to traffic issues that the rest of Virginia largely escapes), and more beholden to the federal government for their livelihood. As a result, Democratic candidates have done well in this area of the state.

While Virginia is not a foregone loss for the Republican party. The Republican party has a considerable grass-roots organization in Virginia. Moreover, outside of the Northern Virginia area, Republican candidates still do exceptionally well - primarily with rural voters who more closely identify with “family values” issues and candidates.

The real question for both parties in the Old Dominion will be turnout. If turnout in the rest of Virginia is low - then Obama will likely win the Old Dominion. If turnout in the rest of Virginia is high, and John McCain can keep Obama below 70% in the Northern Virginia counties, then the Republicans will hold on to Virginia.

In short - it is very, very close.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Barack Obama is the 44th President Elect of the United States.
• Election Day.
• The Obama Gaffe
• The Obama Badge of Honor: Snubbing the Free Market
• Joe the Plumber… why Joe matters…