This entire election comes down to the electoral outcome of three states - Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Virgina’s 13 delegates, New Hampshire’s 4 delegates, and Colorado’s 9 delegates, mean the difference between Obama being elected by 8 delegates, or McCain being elected by 2. Moreover, there is a very distinct possibility that the next president of the United States might be elected by the US Congress, and not by the electoral college.

Nancy Pelosi could decide who the next President of the United States will be - in an ironic twist of fate if it occurred given how the democrats wined about Bush being “c-lected not elected” in 2000.

This election is incredibly close. Absolutely every vote will count in determining the outcome. Thus, let me ask you now - if you have not registered to vote - please do so. While I would encourage you to vote Republican - I think it is paramount that as many people vote in this election as possible. This election will once again be decided by inches… not yards.

Despite the hoopla of the DNC Convention - and the smug satisfaction of people like Sen. Schumer on their electoral chances - Obama’s rockstar status offers him little margin for error. In deciding not to pick Clinton as his running mate, he ensured that Florida’s 27 delegates went to the Republicans. While the polling suggests that Florida is very close - the reality is that the Republican grass-roots efforts in Florida is very well organized, very well funded, and has demonstrated it can marshal its resources to get out the vote on election day. Without Clinton wooing the elderly voters of Florida, it is unlikely that Obama will win Florida.

Moreover, Obama’s decision not to balance the ticket with a southerner means he’s going to be losing most of the south with perhaps the exception of Virginia - and his chances to win in Virginia really boil down to defeating the rural vote of the majority of Virginia’s counties and winning 70% of Fairfax, Arlington, and Loudoun counties in Northern Virginia (something both Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. James Webb managed to do in order to win state-wide office).

Moreover, Obama’s rock star status does not provide him a tactical advantage in many of the states that provide huge electoral caches. In states like New York or California - he will undoubtedly beat McCain by huge margins. It wouldn’t surprise me if Obama carries more than 50% of New York and California voters. But so what - he only needs to carry those states by more than one vote compared to McCain. So whether he wins by one or a hundred thousand - one is all he needs. Similarly, in the Midwest, in Pennsylvania, and in New England, Obama’s rock star status will do little in helping him win the electoral map. He already had those states from the get go - except for New Hampshire - who has decided that they like McCain (but I will get to that in a moment).

For McCain, he can count on some solid support in the South, in the middle of the Midwest, and I believe he will hold onto to Montana, the Dakotas, and he will most likely win Ohio.

I think this map is set. The polling suggests that while there may be some changes on the edges - the bottom line is neither party is likely to make significant inroads in these divisions. So as it starts, the electoral map looks like 265 for Obama, and 247 for McCain. The delegates of Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, decide who the next President of the United States will be.

So the entire race comes down to both candidates being able to marshal their resources in three states, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. In these states, Obama’s money advantage is probably not going to ensure his election victory. The McCain camp has sufficient resources to also saturate these three states. More money, over a certain threshold, does not result in better electoral turn out. Both candidates have sufficient resources to develop grass-roots efforts, and get out the vote, in those states.

If McCain wins Colorado and Virginia - which I think is possible - and loses New Hampshire (which I think is likely) - then the delegate count is exactly split 269-269. Nancy Pelosi, as defined under the Constitution, would become the next President of the United States as described by section 3 of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States:

Section 3. If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

Baring the event of a faithless elector - a defector who votes for either McCain or Obama - when pledged to another - the possibility of a split electoral college is not remote. For McCain to win outright - he would have to win another state in contest (perhaps Nevada) and prevent Obama from being able to split the electoral college. As it presently stands - Nancy Pelosi could become the 44th President of the United States, until the House declared a President, and the Senate a Vice President. I find that possibility remote - as it is likely the President-elect would be selected by the House before January 20th, 2009.

… but it’s a scary thought isn’t it?  Made me shudder….

Get out and register. Get involved in your state.

And make sure you vote.

A good reference: http://www.electoral-vote.com/… I recommend it!

Possibly Related Posts:

• Barack Obama is the 44th President Elect of the United States.
• Election Day.
• The Obama Gaffe
• The Obama Badge of Honor: Snubbing the Free Market
• Joe the Plumber… why Joe matters…