Palin “bump” puts McCain/Palin strong for GOP Convention - Obama/Biden behind
The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden. This is absolutely stunning. It shows the weakness of the Obama/Biden campaign and the lack of a “bump” going out of the convention. As I said in an earlier post, if Sen. Obama did not clear 50% by the end of the convention, Republicans would win in the fall. Well - Obama didn’t clear 50% (49% was the best he did) - and apparently there is no convention “bump”. Despite giving the “best political speech in the history of humanity” (as Olberman called it), never broke 50%. If he can’t convince 50% of the voters - I believe he loses in the fall, and the polling numers by Zogby may explain why.
According to pollster, John Zogby : “Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council - that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer.”
“A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided,” Zogby said.
“In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK - a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman - with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find,” Zogby said.
The Zogby interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain. That means roughly 3.5 million Hillary voters may be supporting McCain nation-wide. This could affect the crucial battleground states, and states that Hillary did well - like Florida and Pennsylvania.
Zogby found that with both “value” and “values” voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.
Other demographic details are fairly predictable, showing that the McCain/Palin ticket heads into its convention on Monday with numbers that may fuel an optimism they may not have expected, and that many would not have predicted, especially after Obama’s speech Thursday night.
That’s the great thing about Politics - it ain’t over, until it’s over. Obama was riding high last Thursday - but according to Zogby, has unable to translate his “rockstar” status in to a sustained political effort, and less than a week from the Convention’s end, is behind McCain/Palin.
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the CNN poll has some bad news also. there poll conducted from friday to sunday has it Obama 49 McCain 48 which means it’s still a statistical dead heat. first time i’ve ever seen a presidential candidate coming out of their convention with no bump to speak of.
stormin1961s last blog post..Attacking Sarah Palin’s baby at http://storminsmorningjava.blogspot.com.
Brian, It would have helped if you had linked to that study. Meanwhile, what about all the other polls out there? Why just this one? Possibly because they tell a different story? Or did this poll jump the gun, coming out too soon after the convention?
Mark Stonemans last blog post..Amy Goodman’s Arrest at http://markstoneman.wordpress.com.
This isn’t the only poll that shows Obama is not keeping traction. Obama was losing to McCain in most of the major national polls prior to the DNC. He also only got a 6 point bump after his speech … that is historically very low. The McCain announcement of Palin as his VP was extremely motivating to the conservative base. Obama couldn’t maintain any lead over McCain when the conservative base was looking at staying home rather than vote for a moderate. Now they are motivated, and conservatives traditionally outwork their liberal counterparts. They will donate, knock on doors, and get involved as long as they have someone to believe in. Statistically speaking, both have leads in the margin of error. So we are still looking at a statistical tie.
Most of the polls I’ve seen today show Obama/Biden with a 6 to 9% lead. Perhaps Obama’s DNC bump was boosted by the Palin pick.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/01/opinion/polls/main4405106.shtml
GOP pollster’s focus group sees Palin pick as a gimmick:
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/08/focusedthe_sequel.html
“…roughly 3.5 million Hillary voters may be supporting McCain nation-wide”
I wouldn’t count on that… especially after the Palin pick.
IMO: John McCain had better odds of becoming the next President when he thought for himself. Now he’s flip-flopped on several issues and seems to be cozying up with the tactics of Rove and friends.
Ruinous Rights last blog post..‘Change’ Has Been Clearly Outlined at http://www.ruinousright.com.
As for the polling on Palin - it seems to me she still has a 50% favorable rating… we’ll see what happens when she accept tomorrow.
As for the other polls - I’m sorry… CBS isn’t a reliable source. Their polls are nortoriously push-polled. There polls are like “So who would you rather vote for - the nice sweet Barack Obama… or Hitler’s cousin - McCain.” It’s completely nonsense. To a lesser degree, so is CNN. The WSJ’s polls are also often push-polled pro-Republican (so flip the candidates - the nice sweet McCain or Satan’s brother - Obama). You have to look at the questions they ask and the sampling procedures. They all claim to be statistically valid - but it’s clear in alot of cases it’s not the statistics that are the problem.
The only two I look at are Rasmussen and Zogby. Rasmussen’s polling - which ended before Gustav hit on Monday had Obama up by 6. That would be a statistically significant bump (but it also wasn’t available when I wrote this post).
Zogby’s snapshots tend to be good at determining the mood at the moment. Considering the “greatest speech in the history of humanity” had just been delivered - and Obama didn’t break (and still hasn’t) broken 50%… I found interesting. The fact that McCain had a bump was also interesting. However, I think the events of the last 72 probably have affected the polls - so I’m interested in seeing what comes out. I suspect Obama will poll close to 49%…. I’m sure Zogby will have something in a few days… I don’t expect a bump out of the RNC Convention - in lage measure because thus far it’s been so ham-handedly pulled off… let’s have a convention… let’s not… let’s have a telethon (I mean my God… the Republicans decided to hold a telethon OPPOSITE JERRY LEWIS ON LABOR DAY! What the heck were they thinking? They weren’t.). The whole thing thus far has been lame and a disaster….
I’m quite pissed about the RNC Convention. The Republicans had a golden opportunity to say, “Now is the time for the Nation to work together and help our fellow Americans in the Gulf.” McCain should have put together a brief - 30 minute - TV advertisement where he talked about how events like the one facing the Gulf test the leadership of this nation… and how experience matters… and how leadership matters… and what the campaign is going to do to help the affected areas… and what resources the RNC is going to marshal to help the areas affected. The convention should have convened privately - certified the delegates - put the names in nomination… and recessed. NO speeches. No crazy plea/telethon… screwed up process that no one seemed to understand. Instead - Cindy McCain gets up there and does this very weird, half-crazed, sound-bite quest that comes off being exceptionally hokey. The only good thing is - everyone was so busy watching Gustav… no one cared.
And then… in like what has to be the dumbest goddamn thing ever… McCain is going to accept his nomination against the opening came of the NFL. Now, I’m sorry - what do you think people are going to watch… (I’m going to watch football and DVR McCain btw…)
They took a golden opportunity to show the country what the Republican party can do during a crisis - to demonstrate to America our values about experience, service, and country, in a meaningful way… and instead they screwed it all up.
For me… it may be a final indication how broken my party is… that they couldn’t think it through. Not that I expected the DNC would have done any better… I heard Obama say “if I can go down there and help them out… make a speech… or rally volunteers… let me know and I will be there…”
WHAT?
The lunacy seems to be rampant.
Are we saying the only polls that matter are the polls that matter are the polls that back up our point of view? All polls should be looked at and respected not just one we feel support our bad arguments.
Gmoneys last blog post..Real Politics only on Blogcatalog.com at http://gylonjackson.com.
Um… actually no… not all polls should be respected…. that seems to me to be this typical “all views are valid” type approach. Bottom line is - stupidity is always wrong… and acknowledging stupidity as being valid is also wrong…. similarly… acknowledging data derived from bad methodology leads to bad inference…
Polling and arriving at a statistically valid result is a complex process that has rigorous requirements. I don’t care if it’s the “Liberal” media push-polling or a Republican-oriented team push polling… push polling is push polling and it’s not an indication of where things will wind up on election day… and so it’s not a statistically valid sampling of the “population.”
Zogby, Rasmussen, and sometimes Gallup (have to read the questions closely), seem to be honest brokers in terms of how they construct and CONDUCT the polling. Zogby’s been “right” way more often than wrong (although he totally dorked predictions in Iowa and NH for the Democrats). The WSJ, ABC, CBS, and NBC, polls - even when done by Gallup (who often partners with ABC), often get polling done based on their question selection. The selection of questions, how they are delivered, and what they say can influence the analysis considerably. What you are looking to do in a poll is use a sample of respondents to make a prediction about a broader population. If people are really interested in what the electorate is thinking about Obama/McCain - then the polling needs to essentially be poitically neutral. Many of the MSM groups that are polling want to reinforce Obama’s lead - so how they ask questions, how they select their sample, and what questions they ask often reinforce the outcome they want. Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup - on the polls they do for their own namesake (especially Zogby) are probably about as good as it gets. This is why when Gallup last night came out and rightly remarked how Obama for the first time ever broke 50% - I took note of it… Gallup tends not to get ahead of itself… when it publishes reports under it’s own namesake. Gallup’s report also withheld a final conclusion that this was a breakout until they’ve polled again…