Washington, D.C. (rightcommentary.com) This is undoubtedly an interesting video. Produced by the same team that put together the advertisements against Michael Dukakis in 1988 - the famous (if not by now politically transcendent) “Willie Horton” ad.

I am a bit shocked to see something like this come out this early against Sen. Obama. Clearly, the timing seems roughly calculated to have influenced the series of the remaining Democratic contests - perhaps to give Sen. Clinton some advantage with white voters.

Floyd Brown, a longtime conservative strategist who heads the conservative National Campaign Fund, said he is launching the ad to expose Mr. Obama’s weakness on gang violence.

The ad draws a parallel between Sen. Obama’s weakness on gang violence and the war on terror, said Brown. Brown is the former head of Citizens United, which claims to be the largest political action group for conservatives in the United States. (Note: I’d say that distinction probably goes to the American Conservative Union - but that’s just my guess).

The strategy on this - of course - seems pretty obvious to me. It’s a two pronged attack on Sen. Obama
- prong one is to stir up controversy so that Sen. Clinton can gain ground. If “Obama-mania” looks like it’s deflating - that causes greater confusion for the “Super Delegates” to decide who to choose over the summer. Prong two is to lay the foundation for attacking him generally - forcing him to respond - and thus giving up the mantle of “innocence” and claiming to be above it all - with his refrain of “it’s about change, and hope… hope and change…. yes - we - can.” If he starts being “swift-boated” this early - he’ll have to fight back. I presume that when he does that - the next step is to point out what many of us already knew - a good smile and good rhetoric is little defense against good ol’fashioned mudslinging politics.

Is any of this going to work? I don’t know - it might.

In a previous post - I wrote that I thought that Obama had the nomination locked up. I still think that - despite these stumbles - he’ll be okay. He will finish the race as a favorite in the delegate count. My original analysis remains sound (to me) having once again re-read it tonight.

What is unknown, however, is just how big of a stumble the “bitter” remark was and what the impact was in Pennsylvania. I will tell you - it’s really hard to tell what happened in PA - because quite honestly I think Rush’s “Operation Chaos” had quite an effect on voters. Hillary beat Obama by 10 points - even though she was considerably outspent by Obama’s campaign. How much of the 10% were Republicans voting for Hillary - I don’t know.

Nevertheless - the remark - which I think woke up a large portion of the “moderates” and the “right” to the fact that “wow! Obama is pretty leftist, marxist, socialist!” (I on the other hand was unamused) clearly continues to be a problem for him.

Bottom line for me is - this ad doesn’t really hurt him with his base. I mean - what Democrat calls another democrat for being a pansy on crime? That argument is usually Republicans levying against Democrats. So - what’s the point with poppin’ this issue now, other than to try to provoke Sen. Obama into doing something stupid.

I think the group is testing the waters to see how the voters respond… if it hurts Sen. Obama, they’ll run more to try and level the playing field between Hillary and Obama. If it doesn’t work - they’ll pull the ads and you won’t see them at the General Election stage either.

With Sen. Obama as the presumptive nominee - I have to imagine that the ads really speak to the Republican base whom the RNC and McCain are now desperately trying to get them to give money ahead of the Convention later in the fall.

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• Being Rod Blagojevich
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• Treasury Bills “crack the floor” and deflation becomes a greater risk.
• The next “bubble” to burst - US Government debt?
• Franken: I’m stupid enough… I’m vain enough… I’m litigious enough… and doggoneit… I’m still behind.