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The Gathering Storm

the_whitehouse-300x224 The Gathering StormWashington, D.C. (Rightcommentary.com): Tonight as I write I feel akin to what Churchill must have felt when he said to Chamberlain, “Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonour. They chose dishonour. They will have war.”

The United States is a culturally diverse country whose citizens are united by their belief in liberty, equal opportunity, and the possibility of a better life through perseverance and hard work. The United States is world renown for its innovation, its openness to new ideas, and its desire to leave things better for future generations. Presently, our nation enjoys relatively strong economic growth - despite the current prospect of downturns, low unemployment rates, moderate inflation rates, and strong capital markets. Compared to other nations, the United States ranks very high on measures like personal income, literacy, and home ownership. The United States is also currently the only global superpower. Clearly our nation has much to be proud of and thankful for. However, the United States faces a range of major sustainability challenges that need urgent attention in such areas as government financing, defense and homeland security, Iraq, immigration, education, energy, environment, foreign policy, health care, and our nation’s critical infrastructure. Many of these challenges transcend geopolitical and sectoral boundaries.

The world’s overall security environment has changed dramatically, from the conventional threats posed during the Cold War era to more unconventional and asymmetric threats. Providing for people’s safety and security requires attention to threats as diverse as terrorism, violent crime, natural disasters, and infectious diseases. The response to many of these threats depends not only on the action of the U.S. government but also on the cooperation of other nations and multilateral organizations, as well as state and local governments, the private sector, and the nonprofit sector. Complicating such efforts are a number of failed states allowing the trade of arms, drugs, or other illegal goods; the spread of infectious diseases; and the accommodation of terrorist groups. In addition, the United States finds itself operating in an environment where other entities are vying to lead - the European Union, China, Russia, and several violent terrorist organizations, are all complicating the international political environment and in their own ways, blocking America’s attempt to secure a stable and peaceful status quo.

Internally, the nation’s ability to provide for the safety and security of its citizens and to shape its society and its place in the world are endangered by current fiscal, energy, environmental, and other policies that are clearly unsustainable. In the future, the United States faces large and growing structural fiscal deficits driven largely by known demographic trends and rising health care costs. Unfortunately, the math just does not come close to working. In addition, our nation’s financing and energy supply are overly dependent on others. This makes us vulnerable to the demands of nations like China, Japan, and Europe, who have purchased our debts, or to countries like Venezuela, from whom we import our oil.

We must meet an ever growing dimension of threats - against a finite and scarce dimension of resources. It is not clear to me that we can continue to rely on just our economic prowess to steer us clear of problems. Just as the United States was constrained by economic problems during the emergence of a new Russia (and its republics) after Reagan, we may once again be constrained during a time of immense political turmoil, change, and challenges to our leadership after Bush. Our own deficiencies aside, however, we will find ourselves increasing intertwined with forces we cannot control, and outcomes we cannot predict.

Economies as well as governments and societies are becoming increasingly interdependent as more people, information, goods, and capital flow across increasingly porous borders. Indicators such as international trade and financial transactions reveal how economic activity has come to link nations. Both U.S. imports and exports as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP) more than doubled from 1970 to 2005. The United States faces the challenge of securing its borders to protect the safety and security of the nation without impeding the exchange of people, ideas, goods, and capital needed to sustain economic growth and to strengthen civil society. From ensuring something as simple as bananas make it to American markets, and stopping weapons of mass destruction from entering our harbors, our safety, security, and prosperity is increasing tied to activities that are outside the United States.

As the U.S. economy evolves and global interdependence grows, U.S. society is rapidly changing. The U.S. population is aging and becoming more diverse. As the population ages and the ratio of elderly persons and children to persons of working age increases, the sustainability of U.S. social insurance systems will be further threatened. Specifically, according to the 2000 census, the median age of the U.S. population was the highest it had ever been, and the baby boomer age group-people born from 946 to 964, inclusive-was a significant part of the population. As this group ages, it will have a continuing influence on society and social programs.

These societal changes add to concerns about the sustainability of the nation’s resources and current U.S. policies. They represent threats to safety and security and affect quality of life for people living in the United States and around the globe. Despite increasing productivity and economic growth, U.S. citizens face a gap between the haves and the have nots. Lack of affordable housing, urban sprawl, and growing commute times leave many U.S. citizens struggling to balance the daily demands of work and family.

If our nation is to be prepared for the challenges and changes that are coming, nothing less than a top- to-bottom review of federal programs and policies is needed to determine if they are meeting their objectives. As a nation, we need to ask, “What is the proper role of the federal government in the 21st century, and how should it be organized, executed, managed, and financed?”

We cannot continue on the path we are going. It will bankrupt our nation and leave us, and the world, vulnerable to the forces of barbarism that are actively working to undermine a peaceful world.

In the coming months, we will see things deteriorate in Iraq. The militia in Iraq, as well as forces in Iran, and elsewhere, will have concluded that they can force a withdrawal from Iraq if the increase the political pressure on the United States during the months leading up to the election.

Moreover, we should expect that Al Qaida will attempt an attack - to force America to recoil and attempt to secure a victory for candidates who espouse a more pacifistic rhetoric.

Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, chief of the U.S. Northern Command, also told reporters last month that he has not seen any direct threats tied to the U.S. presidential elections. But he said it would be rash to think that such threats are not there.

“We need only to look at Spain and see that they’re certainly willing to try to do something that is significant that could affect an election process,” Renuart said. “I think it would be imprudent of us to let down our guard believing that if there’s no credible threat that you know of today, there won’t be something tomorrow.”

While he said that U.S. authorities have thwarted attacks on a number of occasions, he said terrorist cells may be working harder than ever to plot high-impact events. He did not point to any specific intelligence that authorities have received but said the “chatter” they are hearing “gives me no reason to believe they’re going to slow down” in their efforts to target the U.S.

“If an organization like that is to maintain credibility and continue to grow more of its extremists, it has to show tangible results,” Renuart said. “So I think there may be a certain sense of urgency among that organization to have an effect. So it would tell me that they’re trying harder.”

All the while, China looms in its active attempts to subvert the United States. And Russia, although significantly weaker than the “Bear” of the 1940’s and 50’s - continues to make noises that it will try to re-integrate what remains of the Soviet sphere and perhaps challenge US supremacy once again.

I implore readers to think about all of these things when they listen to the candidates for President. Ask yourself, honestly, if the person you support is truly able to deal with the multitude of challenges we face, against an decreasing set of resources.

I support Sen. McCain because I think he will be able to meet these challenges. He was not my original choice for President, but, I have no reservations supporting him as our Party’s candidate. I am encouraged by the things I have heard on his economic and defense policies. I must admit I am discouraged by the things he has proposed in the past - such as immigration reform. However, I place my faith not in “princes” but in the organization and the men and women of the United States who lead this country, and in the core values of the Republican Party. McCain has vowed to strengthen America. To combat out of control spending. To reform social welfare in the United States. To reform our military. And to put in place the people necessary to lead and make fundamental changes to bring America back to a course of prosperity in the future. I believe McCain will set the tone that will keep America strong, and focus on the areas where we have weakened.

I believe that either Democratic candidate will lead us down a road we have been down before - socialized government, crushing under an oppressive tax regime, exacerbating our debts, increasing our dependence on foreign money and foreign oil, and bringing back the “good old days” of the 1970’s - where we actually measured our “pain” in terms of a misery index.

The storm is coming - who do you want at the helm of the ship when it arrives?

Personally, I’m going with the Navy man. Any one who can win the nomination - after going through what Sen. McCain did - has my vote. I disagreed with Sen. McCain over the surge - for various reasons. Reality is - he was right about the surge. I still disagree with Sen. McCain on immigration - but I feel both his position and the party’s will ultimately moderate to something we can both agree on.

Sen. McCain was willing to risk it all and essentially bet his entire campaign on his values. I admire that type of leadership.

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